Express Analysis. October 2023

The scale of economic overheating becomes extremely dangerous for macroeconomic and financial stability. GDP grew by 3.5% (YoY) over the nine months of 2023, including a ≈6.3% growth (YoY) in September. In September, the volume of GDP (seasonally adjusted) increased by ≈0.3% versus August 2023. As a result, in general, the Belarusian economy showed noticeable growth in Q3-2023, and the output volume was close to the average quarterly value of the pre-war year 2021. Excessively loose domestic economic policy, continued high demand in Russia, and operations of upgraded supply chains delivering Belarusian goods through Russia supported economic activity