Express Analysis. October, 2022

Belarus’ GDP has fallen by 4.7% (y/y) over nine months. In particular, economic activity decreased by 3.3% (y/y) in September after a 3.0% decrease (y/y) in August (Figure 1.a). The dynamics of the seasonally adjusted GDP in the first month of autumn is close to zero, which keeps the output volume approximately at the levels of the second half of 2017. A GDP decline by 4.5–5% seems realistic at the year-end considering the ongoing output dynamics.