Express Analysis. November, 2022

Belarus’s GDP has decreased by 4.7% (YoY) in ten months. Separately, the indicator fell by ≈4.7% (YoY) in October following the falling by ≈3.3% (YoY) in September. The volume of the seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by more than 1% in October versus September. Exports partially recovered; however, in physical volume terms, exports are still significantly smaller than before the sanctions were imposed. The effects of sanctions and heightened uncertainty are pressuring domestic demand, and the authorities are trying to prevent a domestic demand drop by exercising a loose monetary policy and by intensifying issuing operations. Considering the output dynamics, expectations of the GDP decline by 4.5-5% at the year-end remain relevant.