Express Analysis. February 2023

Belarusian GDP decreased by 5% (YoY) in January 2023 after declining by ≈5.2% (YoY) a month earlier. January’s GDP (seasonally adjusted) remained close to the December 2022 GDP values, which was close to the average values in 2011 and 2017. The output of the vast majority of the economy’s sectors was still significantly smaller than the pre-war output indicators. This indicates that the value chain restructuring process is far from being completed. The GDP’s decline may amount to ca. 4–4.5% (YoY) in January-February. Output reduction rate will slow down in the future as the Belarusian economy adapts to new realities, if there are no significant shocks.