Express Analysis. April 2024

Growth of Belarusian GDP exceeded expectations in Q1-2024, but its quality looks increasingly alarming for macroeconomic stability.
In Q1-2024, GDP grew by 4.1% YoY, including a ≈4.4% YoY growth in March. Seasonally adjusted output grew by over 1% in March versus February, and in general, output growth was ca. 0.5–0.6% in Q1-2024 versus Q4-2023. Thus, Belarusian GDP grew at a rate exceeding balanced growth in Q1-2024 again. The continued loose monetary conditions, directed lending and rapid increases in wages amid labor shortages reinforced the already extremely high consumer demand.