Express Analysis. December 2023

Extensive growth of the Belarusian economy hits its ceiling due to production capacity limitations. Belarusian GDP grew by 3.8% (YoY) over 11 months of 2023, including a ≈3.8% growth (YoY) in November 2023. GDP (seasonally adjusted) remained above its equilibrium level in November 2023, but it fell by more than 1% versus October 2023. The space for high extensive growth is being exhausted due to supply limitations: lack of staff, lack of production capacity, and complexity of logistics. In the current situation, continuation of the expansionist economic policy will lead not so much to rapid output growth, but to accelerating inflation and expanding foreign trade deficit