Express Analysis. November 2023

Economy remains overheated despite weakening growth impulse. GDP grew by 3.8% (YoY) over the 10 months of 2023, including a ≈5.9% growth (YoY) in October 2023. In October, the volume of GDP (seasonally adjusted) remained close to the September level. This is higher than the monthly average in 2021 and noticeably higher than equilibrium output, i.e., the volume of GDP that does not generate macroeconomic imbalances. In October, high output level was supported by strong domestic demand, which was fueled by an overly expansionary domestic economic policy. Coupled with the restraining effect of production capacity limitations on the supply side, strong demand increases inflationary pressures in the economy.