Express Analysis. July 2023

Belarusian GDP could exceed its equilibrium in Q2-2023. In June, the GDP of Belarus grew by ≈7.1% (YoY) and by 6.1% (YoY) in Q2-2023. In June 2023, GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) increased by ≈0.15–0.4% compared to May 2023. On the demand side, output growth in June 2023 was driven by an increase in investment, which reflected in increasing volumes of construction work and manufacturing production. Consumer demand remained close to its May 2023 level, significantly exceeding the pre-war figures. In the coming months, GDP dynamics may be volatile due to fluctuations in agricultural output, and the cumulative growth rate since the beginning of the year may get close to 3% (YoY).